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Elections

New party registration tops 10 ahead of next election?

฿743K vol345 tradersCloses Mar 2

Chance of yes

58%▼6.4

1.72x

payout if right

Kaishi Intelligence

67% confidence

The crowd leans toward this outcome at 58%. Pricing has tracked the pre-event consensus, with accelerating flow over the last 24h.

58% implies roughly 1-in-2 odds against. Fees peak near 50% uncertainty and shrink toward the extremes.

Smart-money accounts (top-decile accuracy) are net buyers
Momentum: the lead side has gained ground in 6 of the last 7 sessions
Base rates for comparable events in Thailand support the move

Generated read of market data & public reporting — not financial advice.

Market stats

สถิติตลาด

Volume

฿743K

lifetime notional

Traders

345

unique accounts

Liquidity

฿72.5K

resting on the book

Closes

Mar 2

8mo left

Rules & resolution

กติกาและการตัดสิน

This market resolves YES if the event described — “New party registration tops 10 ahead of next election” — occurs before the close time shown, as reported by the resolution source.

Community

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Guy@guydesk

78.4% accuracy · 1d

Fading the crowd here. When retail floods one side this fast, the base rate says take the other side and wait.

🎌New party registration tops 10 ahead of next election?58%

Ploy@ployflow85

70.1% accuracy · 1d

Weather models (GFS + ECMWF both) agree for once. This is as close to free money as it gets in rain markets.