The crowd heavily discounts this outcome at 18%. Pricing has diverged from the pre-event consensus, with choppy flow over the last 24h.

18% implies roughly 1-in-6 odds for. Fees peak near 50% uncertainty and shrink toward the extremes.

• Smart-money accounts (top-decile accuracy) are net buyers
• Base rates for comparable events in Thailand support the move
• Primary-source signals point in this direction ahead of confirmation

Generated read of market data & public reporting — not financial advice.