🛍️

Retail

Duty-free arrivals shopping reinstated this year?

฿640K vol480 tradersCloses Dec 2

Chance of yes

28%▲2.6

3.57x

payout if right

Kaishi Intelligence

84% confidence

The crowd leans against this outcome at 28%. Pricing has diverged from the pre-event consensus, with steady flow over the last 24h.

28% implies roughly 1-in-4 odds for. Fees peak near 50% uncertainty and shrink toward the extremes.

Base rates for comparable events in Thailand support the move
Primary-source signals point in this direction ahead of confirmation
Momentum: the lead side has gained ground in 6 of the last 7 sessions

Generated read of market data & public reporting — not financial advice.

Market stats

สถิติตลาด

Volume

฿640K

lifetime notional

Traders

480

unique accounts

Liquidity

฿60.7K

resting on the book

Closes

Dec 2

5mo left

Rules & resolution

กติกาและการตัดสิน

This market resolves YES if the event described — “Duty-free arrivals shopping reinstated this year” — occurs before the close time shown, as reported by the resolution source.

Community

ชุมชนนักเทรด

See all

Kwan@kwanwins

62.8% accuracy · 1d

My model has this at 12 points above market. Either I'm wrong or this is the best value on the board right now.

🛍️Duty-free arrivals shopping reinstated this year?28%

No @ 30%฿1.8K positiontap to trade →

Nong@nongwins

80.8% accuracy · 1d

Weather models (GFS + ECMWF both) agree for once. This is as close to free money as it gets in rain markets.