The crowd heavily discounts this outcome at 11%. Pricing has diverged from the pre-event consensus, with choppy flow over the last 24h.

11% implies roughly 1-in-9 odds for. Fees peak near 50% uncertainty and shrink toward the extremes.

• Momentum: the lead side has gained ground in 6 of the last 7 sessions
• Base rates for comparable events in Thailand support the move
• Primary-source signals point in this direction ahead of confirmation

Generated read of market data & public reporting — not financial advice.