The crowd heavily discounts this outcome at 26%. Pricing has diverged from the pre-event consensus, with accelerating flow over the last 24h.

26% implies roughly 1-in-4 odds for. Fees peak near 50% uncertainty and shrink toward the extremes.

• Primary-source signals point in this direction ahead of confirmation
• Smart-money accounts (top-decile accuracy) are net buyers
• Momentum: the lead side has gained ground in 6 of the last 7 sessions

Generated read of market data & public reporting — not financial advice.